|
How would a pandemic impact mortality?
A wide range of estimates15
Central to preparedness planning is estimating the mortality rates
of the next pandemic. Experts' answers to this fundamental question have ranged
from 2 million to more than 50 million. All of these predictions are
scientifically grounded. The reasons for the wide range of estimates are
numerous.
Some estimates are based on extrapolations from past pandemics, but significant
details of these events are disputed, such as the true numbers of resulting
deaths. The most precise predictions are based on the pandemic in 1968, but
even in this case estimates vary from 1 million to 4 million deaths.
Similarly, the number of deaths from the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918
is posited by different investigators to range from 20 million to well
over 50 million.
Extrapolations are problematic because the world of today is a different place
from the world of 1918. The impact of greatly improved nutrition and healthcare
needs to be weighed against the contribution the increase in international travel
would have on global spread. The specific characteristics of a future pandemic
virus cannot be predicted. It may affect 20% to 50% of the total population.
It is also unknown how pathogenic a novel virus would be.
Millions likely to be affected-even in a moderate pandemic15
Even in the best case scenarios of the next pandemic, 2 to 7 million people
could die and tens of millions would require medical attention worldwide.
Two scenarios for the potential impact
of a flu pandemic on the US12
Characteristic |
Moderate (1958/68-like) |
Severe
(1918-like) |
|
Illness
|
90 million (30%)
|
90 million (30%)
|
|
Outpatient medical care
|
45 million (50%)
|
45 million (50%)
|
|
Hospitalization
|
865,000
|
9,900,000
|
|
ICU care |
128,750
|
1,465,000
|
|
Mechanical ventilation
|
64,975
|
742,500
|
|
Deaths
|
209,000
|
1,903,000
|
Learn about the role vaccines will play in the event of a pandemic.
|
Tell-A-Colleague
