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How would a pandemic impact the US economy?
A pandemic could deliver a "shock" to the economy, with immediate demand- and
supply-side effects, as well as longer-term supply-side effects.17
The general slowdown in economic activity would reduce gross domestic
product (GDP). Business confidence would be dented, the supply of labor
would be restricted, supply chains would be strained as transportation
systems were disrupted, and arrears and default rates on consumer and
business debt would probably rise. It seems likely that the stock market
would initially fall and rebound later.17
Estimates of the economic impact vary widely. A pandemic could cause a serious
recession in the US economy, with immediate costs ranging from $500 billion
to $675 billion. The following is a sampling of predictions from financial
leaders:18
- WBB Securities LLC predicted a pandemic could cause a one-year economic loss of
$488 billion and a permanent economic loss of $1.4 trillion to the US economy
- The Congressional Budget Office said a pandemic could deal a $675 billion hit to the US economy
- The World Bank has predicted a pandemic could cost the global economy $800 billion a year
Learn how the US government is protecting the country in case of a pandemic.
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